This is the 2017 Camera shipment Forecast from CIPA: They expect a 10,3% decline.


CIPA published the outlook for 2017 (PDF file here):

Total shipments (the cumulative total of shipments from January to December) of digital
cameras in 2017 are projected to be 21.70 million units, a year-on-year decline of
10.3%.

Broken down by product-type, shipments of digital cameras with built-in lenses are
projected to be 10.50 million units (a year-on-year fall of 16.7%). Of those, shipments
to Japan and those to regions outside of Japan are projected to be 1.80 million units (a
year-on-year decrease of 18.2%) and 8.70 million units (a year-on-year decline of
15.5%), respectively. Shipments of digital cameras with an interchangeable lens are
projected to be 11.20 million units (a year-on-year fall of 3.4%). Of those, shipments to
Japan and those to regions outside of Japan are projected to be 1.20 million units (a
year-on-year decline of 7.7%) and 10.00 million units (a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%),
respectively.

Shipments of lenses for cameras with interchangeable lenses are projected to fall 6.2%
year on year to 18.00 million units. Of those, shipments to Japan and those to regions
outside of Japan are projected to decline 8.0% year on year to 2.30 million units and
6.0% year on year to 15.70 million units, respectively.

In addition to the step-up demand from users who have come to enjoy taking photos
because of smartphones and want digital cameras, expectation for another step-up
demand from the existing users of digital cameras who replace with or buy better digital
cameras will remain high. Therefore, it is expected that demand for digital cameras with
interchangeable lenses will remain firm compared to that for digital cameras with
built-in lenses.

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